Lee,
William Thomas. Lee,
William Thomas.
1. The Estimation of Soviet Defense Expenditures for 1955-1975: An Unconventional Approach. New York: Praeger, 1977.
DIA critic of CIA estimates, who argues that the Soviet defense budget and the defense share of GNP were larger than figures claimed by CIA.
2. Understanding the Soviet Military Threat. New York: National Strategy Information Center, 1977.
Compare to Lee, The Estimation of Soviet Defense Expenditures..., above.
3. CIA Estimates of Soviet Military Expenditures: Errors and Waste. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, 1995.
The author continues the argument advanced in his Estimation of Soviet Defense Expenditures for 1955-1975 (above).
Lexow, Wilton E., and Julian Hopyman. "The Enigma of Soviet BW." Studies in Intelligence 9, no. 2 (Spring 1965): 15-20.
"A dearth of information continues to keep open the Soviet germ warfare intelligence gap."
Lindgren, David T.
Trust But Verify: Imagery Analysis in the Cold War. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2000.
For Seamon, Proceedings, Nov. 2000, "[t]he steady development and improvement of aerial intelligence gathering is spelled out here in admirable detail.... Lindgren ... also recalls U.S. politics and diplomacy of the Cold War years and the impact made on policy by imagery analysis. In the absence of most of the parochial bickering among the military services that marred intelligence gathering in World War II, analysts working under civilian control 'provided a series of American presidents with the strategic intelligence they required.'"
Peake, Studies 48.1, notes that author "makes clear he does not agree with th[e] decision," made under DCI John Deutch, to remove CIA from its role in the U.S. satellite programs.
Lowenhaupt, Henry S. "Chasing Bitterfeld Calcium." Studies in Intelligence 17, no. 1 (Spring 1973): 21-30.
Lowenhaupt, Henry S. "The Decryption of a Picture." Studies in Intelligence 11, no. 3 (Summer 1967): 41-53.
"Puzzling out the power supply to Urals atom plants."
Lowenhaupt, Henry S. "On the Soviet Nuclear Scent." Studies in Intelligence 11, no. 4 (Fall 1967): 13-29. Studies in Intelligence: 45th Anniversary Special Edition, Fall 2000, 53-69.
"Traces of the borrowed German scientists combine with other scraps of information to throw light on the USSR's early atomic program."
Lowenhaupt,
Henry S. "Ravelling Russia's Reactors." Studies in Intelligence
16, no. 3 (Fall 1972): 65-79.
Westerfield: "Multidisciplinary intelligence analysis in the late 1950s of how a major nuclear production facility in central Siberia worked."
Lowenhaupt, Henry S. "Somewhere in Siberia." Studies in Intelligence 15, no. 1 (Winter 1971): 35-51.
This article describes a late-1950s effort to understand the Soviet atomic weapons program.
Lundberg, Kirsten.
The SS-9 Controversy: Intelligence as Political Football. Cambridge, MA: John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 1989.
Lundberg, Kirsten,
ed. The CIA and the Fall of the Soviet Empire: The Politics of "Getting
it Right." Case Study C16-94-1251.0. Cambridge, MA: John F. Kennedy
School of Government, Harvard University, 1994.
Includes a number of CIA documents covering this period.
MacEachin, Douglas J. CIA Assessments of the Soviet Union: The Record Versus the Charges -- An Intelligence Monograph. Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1996.
"[C]harges that CIA did not see and report the economic decline, societal deterioration, and political destabilization that ultimately resulted in the breakup of the Soviet Union are contradicted by the record." The monograph includes excerpts from various CIA presentations from June 1977 to May 1991 to make the point.
Marchio, James D. "Will They Fight? US Intelligence Assessments and the Reliability of Non-Soviet Warsaw Pact Armed Forces, 1946–89." Studies in Intelligence 51, no. 4 (2007): 13-27.
This article is the author's "reconstruction of the story of the US Intelligence Community's (IC) efforts to address one of the central analytical questions of the Cold War -- whether and how well Non-Soviet Warsaw Pact (NSWP) military forces would fight for their Soviet masters in the event of a conflict."
Noren, James. "CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Economy." In Watching the Bear: Essays on CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, eds. Gerald K. Haines and Robert E. Leggett. Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 2003.
From "Introduction": The author "provides a first-hand account of the work the DI produced" during the Cold War. Noren's "paper chronicles an array of intelligence assessments of the Soviet economy and a record of significant achievements by CIA and the US Intelligence Community.... The accuracy of CIA's analysis of the Soviet economy ... has become the subject of substantial debate.... Noren's analysis buttresses the assessments of a number of other analysts who maintain that the Agency did as well as could be expected in anticipating the collapse of the Soviet economy in the early 1990s."
Perl, Matthew. "Comparing US and UK Intelligence Assessment in the Early Cold War: NSC-68, April 1950." Intelligence and Nationa; Security 18, no. 1 (Spring 2003): 119-154.
The author compares NSC-68 (April 1950) with JIC (51) 6 (January 1951). The American and British utilized "dissimilar assumptions and interpretive approaches" in their intelligence assessments of the Soviet Union. It was on the "subjective questions -- the 'mysteries' -- that US and UK analysts disagreed throughout the early years of the Cold War, America's view of Communist doctrine leading them to ascribe aggressive intentions to the USSR long before Britain was prepared to do so."
Pitzer, John S. "The Tenability of the CIA Estimates of Soviet Economic Growth: A Comment." Journal of Comparative Economics 14 (1990): 301- 319.
Powers, Thomas. "Soviet Intentions and Capabilities." The Atlantic, Apr. 1982. Chapter 15 in Intelligence Wars: American Secret History from Hitler to Al-Qaeda, 235-242. Rev. & exp. ed. New York: New York Review of Books, 2004.
Using John Prados' The Soviet Estimate (1982), Powers discusses issues surrounding intelligence analysis.
Prados, John. The Soviet Estimate: U.S. Intelligence Analysis and Russian Military Strength. New York: Dial Press, 1982.
Although he believes that some of the author's assertions and even his general treatment of the material can be questioned, Pforzheimer still accepts Prados' treatment as "a timely, relevant, and informative book. Unfortunately, it must be read with some caution because of some errors of fact."
Lowenthal notes that the book is based solely on open sources. Nevertheless, it is "a useful history and analysis of the estimative process."
For Powers, The Atlantic (Apr. 1982) and Intelligence Wars (2004), 235-242, this is a "fine history" that "is certain to become a standard work in the field.... Intelligence professionals will consult [t]his book to find out what's in the public domain and what's still secret.... [O]rdinary readers ... will find it too hard, too dense, too filled with numbers, tables, and acronyms, too dull, too obsessive in its attempt to gather in one place every fact and echo of contention in the strategic intelligence business.... Prados's excellent bibliography, the most comprehensive I have seen, lists hundreds of items."
Price, Victoria S. The DCI's Role in Producing Strategic Intelligence Estimates. Newport, RI: Center for Advanced Research, Naval War College, 1980.
Lowenthal finds this to be "an extremely useful analysis of the roles played by successive DCIs (through DCI Turner) on strategic estimates of the Soviet Union."
Riemann, Robert H. "The Challenge of Glasnost for Western Intelligence." Parameters 20, no. 4 (1990): 85-94. [Petersen]
Rosefielde, Stephen. False Science: Underestimating the Soviet Arms Buildup. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 1982.
Rubenstein, Henry. "DC Power and Cooling Towers." Studies in Intelligence 16, no. 3 (Fall 1972): 81-86. In Inside CIA's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955-1992, ed. H. Bradford Westerfield, 3-7. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1995.
This article concerns the analytical work surrounding an effort to project the number of thermonuclear weapons available to the Soviets after they concluded atmospheric nuclear testing in 1962 and signed the Test Ban Treaty in 1963.
Rush, Myron. "A Neglected Source of Evidence." Studies in Intelligence 2, no. 3 (Summer 1958): 117-125.
The author discusses Soviet "esoteric communications": that is, hidden messages in "published texts whose surface meaning does not reveal their political significance.... Western observers underestimate the refinement and subtlety of Soviet esoteric communications."
Return to Analysis Table of Contents